Context
The Italian use case has the particularity that was born during the execution of the project as an additional use case to test the ABM short-period model. It was possible due to the involvement of UNIPR, which had access to RICA microdata. This use case is at the regional level of Emilia-Romagna and studies the impact of introducing different levels of CO2 taxation on GHG emissions produced by the livestock sector. For this reason, the use case aims to answer the two main research questions presented below by designing realistic policy scenarios under the European directives.
Current situation
Emilia-Romagna is a NUTS2 region (code ITH5) in Northeast Italy, which accounts for 22,446 km2 and has a population of 4.4 million people. This region has a strong agro-industrial vocation, highlighting milk and cheese production. The livestock sector in Emilia-Romagna accounts for 11.4% of the livestock units bred in Italy (10% bovines, 12% swine, and 18% poultry), representing 15.2% of the national animal production value (2357.3 million EUR). Emilia-Romagna is responsible for 10.4% of Italian livestock-related GHG emissions (2,059 thousand tonnes) and for 9 % of national ammonia emissions (23,114.78 tons of NH3).
According to the 2020 Census of Italian Agricultural Structure, in Emilia Romagna in 2020, there were 53,753 farms (4.7% of those in Italy), just under a third of the 170,000 farms recorded in 1982. This decrease in the number of farms has led to a sharp increase in the average farm size, reaching almost 20 hectares of UAA, which is among the highest regional average sizes at the national level. This has overturned the role and importance of small-sized farms (less than 10 hectares of UAA). In 2020, the number of cattle farms was 4,900 with 271,00 dairy cows in the region.
Improvement potential
Within AGRICORE, the Italian use case aims to assess the likelihood of dairy farmers accepting predefined policy scenarios that imply different levels of CO2 taxation on GHG emissions produced by the livestock sector in Emilia-Romagna. This region accounted for 11.4% of Livestock Units bred in Italy and produces 16% of Italian milk. Considering this, Emilia-Romagna is the second Italian region for milk production after Lombardia (44%). Its milk production is mostly used for the production of cheese: 89.2% of the regional milk was allocated to the production of 140,000 tons of Parmigiano Reggiano PDO in the area between the Po and Reno rivers, while 325.700 tons of regional milk (0.016%) were used to produce 24,000 tons of Grana Padano PDO. For its milk specialization and cheese production, Emilia-Romagna is responsible for a relevant rate of GHG and ammonia emissions, which makes Emilia-Romagna an ideal region to assess the impact of the introduction of GHG and ammonia taxation on the farmers’ production choices.
Summary of the results
For the Italian use case, the data collection process was limited to the FADN microdata. In the 2020 Italian FADN, the Emilia-Romagna agricultural system is described as a farm sample represented by 710 farms. It includes farms with different levels of specialisation which interact between them. Considering the “weighted factor”, which reproduces the representativity of each observed farm to the whole universe, the model reproduces the behaviour of the 35,459 farms settled in that region.
1. Farm technical orientation
Based on FADN microdata, the number of farms in the Emilia-Romagna region has been analysed according to the type of farming. Firstly, those farms having more than 1,000 ha have been then removed from the sample as not statistically representative. This distribution is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Number of farms in the Emilia-Romagna 2020 FADN by type of farming.
2. Holder’s age and farm size
Distinguishing between farms specialized in dairy cattle (dairy farms) and farms with other technical orientations (other farms), the socioeconomic structure of the Emilia-Romagna agricultural system has been analysed. To this end, the holder’s age and the farm size have been selected as leading criteria. Considering these aspects, the FADN sample of Emilia-Romagna is characterised by the prevalence of farms smaller than 10 ha (44.8%). In terms of the holder’s age and technical orientation, the largest categories are non-dairy farms, with farm holders aged 41–64 (44.1%) and 65 or above (41.9%). Young farmholders account for only 5.8%. (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Emilia-Romagna 2020 FADN sample composition according to holder’s age, type of farming and farm dimension.
3. Farm location
The distribution of farms by altitude was evaluated and categorized among mountain, hill and flatland. Most of the farms are located on flatlands (69%).
Figure 3. Farm distribution by altitude.
4. Cultivated crop
Based on the available data in the Emilia-Romagna region, a crop representativeness study has been conducted. This use case considers 244 different crop species. Among the use cases studied is by far the most complex use case considering this aspect, as the number of variables is limited due to computational constraints. For this reason, crop grouping for this use case is critical according to this context.
The representativeness of crops according to their cultivated area is illustrated in Figure 4. The five original crops with higher overall cultivated area are Uncultivated productive pastures, Durum wheat, Olive tree for olives for oil, Alfalfa and Hybrid corn, representing 52.6% of the total cultivated area in the region. Moreover, the crops’ representativeness by sales quantity was also studied.
Figure 4. Crops representativeness in the Italian use case according to the cultivated area.
Based on these criteria and the relationship between crops and livestock, the resulting crop grouping in the use case was cereals, olive, protein crops, soybean, maize, grazing, alfalfa, industrial crops, forage and others. The cultivated area of these groups is shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5. Italian use case crop grouping result: total area.